Clarke on Theism and Science

Arthur C. Clarke on theism and science, from Childhood's End:

"You know why Wainwright and his type fear me, don't you?" asked Karellen. His voice was somber now, like a great organ rolling its notes from a high cathedral nave. "You will find men like him in all the world's religions. They know that we represent reason and science, and however confident they may be in their beliefs, they fear that we will overthrow their gods. Not necessarily through any deliberate act, but in a subtler fashion. Science can destroy religion by ignoring it as well as by disproving its tenets. No one ever demonstrated, so far as I am aware, the nonexistence of Zeus or Thor, but they have few followers now. The Wainwrights fear, too, that we know the truth about the origins of their faiths. How long, they wonder, have we been observing humanity? Have we watched Mohammed begin the Hegira, or Moses giving the Jews their laws? Do we know all that is false in the stories they believe?"

Claim: Arctic sea ice is disappearing faster than anyone thought

The September 2012 record low in Arctic sea-ice extent was big news, but a missing piece of the puzzle was lurking below the ocean's surface. What volume of ice floats on Arctic waters? And how does that compare to previous summers? These are difficult but important questions, because how much ice actually remains suggests how vulnerable the ice pack will be to more warming.

New satellite observations confirm a University of Washington analysis that for the past three years has produced widely quoted estimates of Arctic sea-ice volume. Findings based on observations from a European Space Agency satellite, published online in Geophysical Research Letters, show that the Arctic has lost more than a third of summer sea-ice volume since a decade ago, when a U.S. satellite collected similar data.

More: http://junkscience.com/2013/02/24/claim-arctic-sea-ice-is-disappearing-faster-than-anyone-thought

Welcome to reality...

Prizatization of Resources to Promote Sustainability

I've written on the concept of the Tragedy of the Commons in the past. An example in Field's Natural Resource Economics presents more than one potential solution to the problem of over-consumption in the commons, exacerbated by the lack of property rights in the world's oceans:

The tragedy of the commons is a dilemma arising from the situation in which multiple individuals, acting independently, and solely and rationally consulting their own self-interest, will lower the yield a shared limited resource, even to the point of ultimately depleting it, even when it is clear that it is not in everyone's short or long term interest for this to happen.

The net result is that no individual has any economic incentive to practice sustainable harvesting of fish, and in fact has the opposite incentive; if others are harvesting greater amounts, they are receiving greater compensation in the market for producing greater quantities of goods. This creates a situation whereby depletion of natural resources happens at an ever-increasing rate, with the end result being a supply of fish unable to meet the demand. The responsible firm who practices sustainable fishing in fact drives themselves out of the market. Each firm has an incentive to harvest as much as possible and deliver those goods to the market, guaranteeing each a continued ability to operate and profit.

Another unfortunate effect of this concept in practice is through the act of prohibition by the state. When a particular market for goods or services is prohibited through fiat, that simply drives the market underground, rather than bringing an end to that particular market. Prohibition also has an incentivizing effect on that market, as it drives up the potential profits due to the heightened risks associated with the black market demand. The illegal drug trade is one such example, with the inherent violence associated being an unfortunate unintended consequence of prohibition (see also alcohol prohibition).

One solution with proven effectiveness is the privatization of those resources at risk of depletion by over consumption. With the evident reversal in the decline in the populations of elephants, where the prohibition of poaching elephants had little effect in Kenya compared to implementing a property rights scheme in Zimbabwe, it becomes apparent that under the right circumstances, the free market is more effective at alleviating over-consumption of resources than efforts by governments.

As long as profit is the motive for exchange, the concept of the Tragedy of the Commons will likely continue in practice to present a need to consider implementing property rights schemes that encourage sustainability over the long term. Property rights promote a long-term sustainability by creating a system whereby profits can be guaranteed in the future, but only by moderating trade in resources today.