Wednesday, May 16, 2012

The World's Energy Future: Diversity

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Yes, this is a bit biased, but the idea that energy diversity can help support sustainability is realistic. Attempting to put all of our energy needs onto just renewables will have adverse effects on our society and economy. While we need to move away from finite sources like oil, coal, and natural gas, dropping them like a rock will not solve any problem other than pollution, while having more negative effects than positive. 

If we've lived through the pollution we have seen, we can surely live through a transition from those pollution energies to renewables without going back to the stone ages. Those finite energy sources will likely become too expensive in terms of EROI before they run out, some within a few generations at the most optimistic estimates, so learning to reduce consumption now and let the world markets choose future energy sources is the best course of action. 

Stop subsidizing those sources which are environmentally damaging and have limited supplies. Why encourage consumption of a limited resource? Where is the logic in that effort? Give incentives to foster renewable energy technology instead. Incentivize reducing consumption of nonrenewables through taxes and put that revenue into renewables. Apply economic principles to the problem and we will see solutions rise to the challenge. 

And no, your hybrid is not helping anything.  

The American Petroleum Institute is the mega lobbying group for the country's oil and natural gas industry, just-released their annual Energy in Charts report.

The group warns of the energy crunch that looms over the country in the next decade — the same ones we have written about recently.

"We need to change course and acknowledge that the current path of shrinking energy options won't support the energy needs and economic growth required to ensure a better future for all Americans. We must not single out energy sources in order to promote one source of energy over another. We must abandon the energy rhetoric that pits one resource against another. We need all of our resources—oil and natural gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, biofuels and more."

We've compiled the 28 charts that together paint a pretty complete picture of where things stand now, and where they're likely to stand going forward. 

Remember of course that these charts come from a lobbying group with obvious interests.

By 2035, our energy consumption will have increased about 5%.



By 2035, renewable resources will satisfy one-sixth of the country's energy needs.



Natgas production has surged, while oil production has declined.



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

Saturday, May 12, 2012

Overfishing Could Take Seafood Off the Menu by 2048

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggMQC2KVbYpdSA_prG7nCE-Y3ylT-bwpS6r_DurhtjwC0_UfTGi_j-iCCPeqyydhRitI1BUJsb6dtTCvmT_SMt4lciVKRas5vMT7sVAuNYeHUw2eISvCDr4fUwaGN5XAk36UytOijmEsCM/s1600/WWF+Bluefin+Tuna+overfishing.jpg

In 1994, seafood may have peaked. According to an analysis of 64 large marine ecosystems, which provide 83 percent of the world's seafood catch, global fishing yields have declined by 10.6 million metric tons since that year. And if that trend is not reversed, total collapse of all world fisheries should hit around 2048. "Unless we fundamentally change the way we manage all the oceans species together, as working ecosystems, then this century is the last century of wild seafood," notes marine biologist Stephen Palumbi of Stanford University.

Marine biologist Boris Worm of Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, gathered a team of 14 ecologists and economists, including Palumbi, to analyze global trends in fisheries. In addition to data from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization stretching back to 1950, the researchers examined 32 controlled experiments in various marine ecosystems, observations from 48 marine protected areas, and historical data on 12 coastal fisheries for the last 1,000 years. The latter study shows that among commercially important species alone, 91 percent have seen their abundance halved, 38 percent have nearly disappeared and 7 percent have gone extinct with most of this reduction happening since 1800. "We see an accelerating decline in coastal species over the last 1,000 years, resulting in the loss of biological filter capacity, nursery habitats and healthy fisheries," notes team member Heike Latze, also of Dalhousie.

And across all scales, from very small controlled studies of marine plots to those of entire ocean basins, maintaining biodiversity--the number of extant species across all forms of marine life--appeared key to preserving fisheries, water filtering and other so-called ecosystem services, though the correlation is not entirely clear. "Species are important not only for providing direct benefits in terms of fisheries but also providing natural infrastructure that supports fisheries," explains team member Emmett Duffy of the Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences. "Even the bugs and weeds make clear, measurable contributions to productive ecosystems."

Although the trend is grim, the study of protected areas offers some hope that marine ecosystems can rebound, according to the paper presenting the analysis in the November 3 issue of Science. The 48 studied showed an overall increase of 23 percent in species diversity and a fourfold increase in available catch. "It's not a miracle. It's something that is do-able, it's just something that requires a big chunk of political will to do it," Worm observes. "We have a 1,000-, probably 10,000-year habit of taking the oceans for granted and moving from one species to the next, or replacing it with a technological fix like aquaculture. To me, the major roadblock is we have to change our perception of what the ocean is." Should we fail, we may lose the ocean's bounty entirely.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=overfishing-could-take-se

http://www.grid.unep.ch/products/5_Posters/sk_overfishingb.gif

I see this overfishing as a perfect example of the Tragedy of the Commons; the shared resources of the fish in the sea, and the lack of ownership, fail to promote sustainable fishing practices, as those fish resources are a common good, which are rivalrous and non-excludable.

By privatizing the oceans (not socializing through the state), fishing markets would have motivation to maintain individual fishing grounds or regions, as overfishing would give advantage to those who build sustainable areas which provide continued supply of fish over the long term. Those grounds which reduce supplies would see income decline, while those with higher levels of fish supply would see income maintained, and their fishing rights to those areas become prime property, which could also trade on a market just as housing does.

Property that is owned in common tends to get overused. Environmental resources that are owned in common tend to get spoiled. For most of human history, we did not know how to avoid this problem. We degraded the environment and drove many species of game and fish into extinction. 

Imagine a world where someone owned the ocean and charged fishermen for the right to take squid. The fishermen demand squid on behalf of those who want to eat it. If the price that fishermen must pay is very high, they will have to charge restaurants a higher price for the squid to break even. Restaurants will in turn have to charge a higher price, so fewer diners will buy squid. If fishermen have to pay a higher price for squid they take from the ocean, they will take only as many as they will be able to profitably resell.

Reprinted from The Economist; Virtue rewarded, Thursday, January 17, 2002

I see that as a obvious easy choice to sustain the fish supply through the application of free market principles like property rights (specifically privatization). Maintaining the oceans as a common good have only encouraged the usage of those resources to be depleted at ever-increasing rates as time goes on, as the only market encouragement fishermen have is to harvest more than their competition to stay competitive, which is not sustainable when the resource is finite.

Some regions require fishing to keep population levels down, such as some bass in lakes and rivers, but most ocean populations require self-control, or market economics, to help regulate the industry.


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Tuesday, May 1, 2012

StarTalk Live! A Night at the Neptune Theatre

Wil Wheaton, Neil DeGrasse Tyson, Kristen Schaal, Paul F. Tompkins, and Eugene Mirman.
Photo caption: Wil Wheaton, Neil DeGrasse Tyson, Kristen Schaal, Paul F. Tompkins, and Eugene Mirman. Photo credit: Leslie Mullen

For our first show on the road, where else could we go but make a pilgrimage to the Geek Mecca?  StarTalk performed to a packed house at Seattle’s Neptune Theatre on March 30, 2012, with comedian co-host Eugene Mirman, comedians Kristen Schaal and Paul F. Tompkins, and Star Trek’s Wesley Crusher, also known as the actor Wil Wheaton.  In this first part of the show, we discuss all things Star Trek, from the sci-fi technology of the future the show imagines to sex with aliens.
Co-Host: Eugene Mirman
Guests : Wil Wheaton
Kristen Schaal
Paul F. Tompkins
Songs :
Seattle was a Riot, by Anti-Flag
Neptune, by Ronald Jenkees
Valleys of Neptune, by Jimi Hendrix
Education, by Pearl Jam
Emerald City by United States of Electronica
Infra Red, by Placebo
Moving to Seattle, by The Material
Black Hole Sun, by Soundgarden
Star Trek TNG theme
Listen now:


StarTalk Live! A Night at the Neptune Theatre (Part 1) | StarTalk Radio Show by Neil deGrasse Tyson

Wil Wheaton, Neil DeGrasse Tyson, Kristen Schaal, Paul F. Tompkins, and Eugene Mirman.
Photo caption: Eugene Mirman, Paul F. Tompkins, Kristen Schaal, Wil Wheaton and Neil DeGrasse Tyson on stage at the Neptune Theatre in Seattle. Image credit: Leslie Mullen.
In the second half of our live show at the Neptune Theatre in Seattle, recorded on March 30, 2012, Neil and his comedian co-host Eugene Mirman, comedians Kristen Schaal and Paul F. Tompkins, and the actor Wil Wheaton geek out on heroes, villains, and technology that’s changed the world.
Co-Host: Eugene Mirman
Guests : Wil Wheaton
Kristen Schaal
Paul F. Tompkins
Songs :
Seattle was a Riot, by Anti-Flag
Neptune, by Ronald Jenkees
Valleys of Neptune, by Jimi Hendrix
Education, by Pearl Jam
Emerald City by United States of Electronica
Infra Red, by Placebo
Moving to Seattle, by The Material
Black Hole Sun, by Soundgarden
Star Trek TNG theme
Listen now:


StarTalk Live! A Night at the Neptune Theatre (Part 2) | StarTalk Radio Show by Neil deGrasse Tyson

Yes, I just finally listened to this...

Saturday, April 28, 2012

Peak Helium?

Anyone familiar with the work of M. King Hubbert understands what happens to the demand for oil when the supply begins to decrease. A WSJ article by Ana Campoy demonstrates the reality of the supply of helium and it's economic effect on the scientific community.

Syracuse University physicist Gianfranco Vidali spends most of his time studying how molecules are made in outer space, but a couple of months ago he abruptly dropped his interstellar research to address an earthly issue: the global shortage of helium.

The airy element best known for floating party balloons and the Goodyear blimp is also the lifeblood of a widening world of scientific research. Mr. Vidali uses the gas, which becomes the coldest liquid on earth when pressurized, to recreate conditions similar to outer space. Without it, he can't work. So when his helium supplier informed him it was cutting deliveries to his lab, Mr. Vidali said, "it sent us into a panic mode."

The market effect is that supplies are being reduced, and consumers are fighting for more limited helium resources.

Helium is found in varying concentrations in the world's natural-gas deposits, and is separated out in a special refining process. As with oil and natural gas, the easiest-to-get helium supplies have been tapped and are declining. Meanwhile, scientific research has rapidly multiplied the uses of helium in the past 50 years. It is needed to make computer microchips, flat-panel displays, fiber optics and to operate magnetic resonance imaging, or MRI, scans and welding machines.

The technology explosion is sucking up helium supplies at dizzying rates. U.S. helium demand is up more than 80% in the past two decades, and is growing at more than 20% annually in developing regions such as Asia.

http://www.hgs.org/attachments/articles/162/SJMaione-Image1.gif


In basic economic terms, supplies have reduced, so costs have increased. Helium surplus is no longer being deposited into reserves, and those reserves are being increasingly-depleted.

"We've not seen the supply and demand at this imbalance in the past. We're running on the edge of the supply-demand curve," says Jane Hoffman, global helium director for
 Praxair Inc.


Supplies in the world's largest helium reserve near Amarillo, Texas, are expected to run out in eight years. Finding and developing new helium sources will take years and millions of dollars in investment.

Glitches at some of the world's biggest helium-producing plants have put a further pinch on supplies in the past year. As supplies have tightened, prices have surged in recent months. For one New York laboratory, prices have increased to $8 a liquid liter, from close to $4 at the end of the summer.

The upshot: Helium users -- from party planners to welding shops -- are having to do with less. Large industrial manufacturers are better able to weather the helium shortage, taking steps like installing equipment that can recycle the gas. So it is the nation's cash-strapped scientific community that is getting the worst of the crunch.

Soaring helium expenses could shut the doors of some independent labs, many which have produced important research over the years, and slow down work at bigger research centers. Helium is used in research to find cures to deadly diseases, create new sources of energy and answer questions about how the universe was formed.

Helium is essential to cool the magnets in nuclear magnetic resonance, or NMR, instruments used to map the chemical structure of molecules. Dale Ray, from The Cleveland Center for Structural Biology, an association that groups researchers from several institutions, says he is considering selling or shutting down two machines at the NMR lab he manages. The increase in helium prices is making it unaffordable to run the equipment, which is used to study proteins responsible for Alzheimer's disease, among other things.

Physicists are particularly affected by the helium shortage because their equipment requires more frequent helium refills. After experiencing interruptions in his helium deliveries, Moses Chan, a physicist at Penn State, launched a poll among his colleagues to find out how widespread the problem was. The results: the majority of helium users at 26 different institutions experienced canceled deliveries at least once, as well as price increases, some of them as much as 100%.

Myriam Sarachik, a physicist at City University of New York, might have to shut down her research. Among other things, Ms. Sarachik studies new materials that could bring a quantum leap in computing capabilities. Helium now absorbs most of her lab's budget, leaving little extra for everything else.

"I'm going to retire. That's the handwriting on the wall," says Ms. Sarachik, who has been doing experiments with helium for more than 40 years.

For one project, Ms. Sarachik and her students use 150 liters of liquid helium a week to cool the inside of a four-feet-high metal vessel to temperatures close to zero degree Kelvin, or about minus 459 Fahrenheit. Inside, they place tiny samples of materials mounted on chips and send electric currents to measure their properties. Without the helium, it would be impossible to monitor how the electrons respond because their behavior is masked by heat vibrations.

The National High Magnetic Field Laboratory, home of the world's strongest magnets, also is being affected. Hundreds of scientists travel from all over the world to Tallahassee, Fla., to use its magnets. They use the lab free of charge, but pay for their helium consumption. Many of them are on a very tight budget. To keep them coming, lab director Greg Boebinger will allocate $300,000 of his own tight budget to offer free helium.

"They need whatever relief we can provide," he says. "If they stop coming we're dead in the water."

There are a few helium projects scheduled to come on line in the next couple of years, but experts predict supplies will remain tight in coming years. Despite its higher prices, helium isn't expensive enough yet to warrant projects devoted to its extraction, so it must piggyback on investments made by natural-gas producers.

Additionally, the biggest helium reserve in the world, which is operated by the U.S. government, is in steady decline. Stored in a depleted natural-gas cavern known as the Bush Dome near Amarillo, it supplies 35% of the helium consumed in the world. The government started the reserve in 1925, but by the mid-90s decided to sell it to pay off debt it incurred from stockpiling helium over the years.

Under law, the entire contents of the Bush Dome should be sold by 2015. Helium is very expensive to store because, like a stranded party balloon, it floats up and disappears into the atmosphere. As a result, there is little storage capacity for the gas. Virtually all helium is processed and shipped to its final user as soon as it is extracted from the ground. Once the Bush Dome reserve is gone, there will be no stored helium to supply the market in case of disruptions at production facilities, making for even spottier deliveries and higher prices.

Experts predict this situation will eventually price out many helium users, who will find substitutes or modify their technology. Some party balloon businesses are filling balloons with mixtures that contain less helium. Some welders are using argon. Industrial users are installing recovery systems. In places where helium isn't easily available, like India, scientists already focus on experiments that can be done using liquid nitrogen, says Michael Cuthbert, a sales manager for Oxford Instruments, a company that sells scientific instruments all over the world.

Reem Jaafar, a researcher at Ms. Sarachik's lab at CUNY, says she will go into another area of physics if helium prices stay at their current levels. "If you have a fixed amount in a grant, and you have to spend it all on helium, you don't have anything left over," she says.

Friday, April 27, 2012

What If the Sky Fell?

Conditions are pretty grim on an Earth with no atmosphere.

The atmosphere of other planets has collapsed and destroyed the ability to support surface life, so the idea is not unprecedented. 

Full article

Sunday, April 15, 2012

List of palindromic places

Just some of my favorite palindromic locations:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_palindromic_places